Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dunav Prahovo vs Budućnost Popovac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dunav Prahovo
Dunav Prahovo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Budućnost Popovac
Budućnost Popovac
4/20/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion FK Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Dunav Prahovo45%
×Draw25%
Budućnost Popovac30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Prahovo
1.57
Budućnost Popovac
1.25

Dunav Prahovo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 87 away

creates per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.69
Budućnost Popovac
1.40

allows per match

Dunav Prahovo
1.09
Budućnost Popovac
1.45

finishing

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par
Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Prahovo ↓

Budućnost Popovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dunav Prahovo or draw
70%
Dunav Prahovo or Budućnost Popovac
75%
Draw or Budućnost Popovac
55%

Winning margin

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+
23%
Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals
79%
Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals
46%
Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals
21%
Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals
71%
Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals
36%
Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)
60%
Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Prahovo at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

Budućnost Popovac away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.45 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.69 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.57

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.40 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Dunav Prahovo scores more
45%
level
25%
Budućnost Popovac scores more
30%

Dunav Prahovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Dunav Prahovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Dunav Prahovo 2–1 Budućnost Popovac

Dunav Prahovo beat Budućnost Popovac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Dunav in Prahovo.