Budućnost Popovac 0–1 Dunav Prahovo: Result & Stats

Budućnost Popovac

FT

0 – 1

Dunav Prahovo

9/8/2024

Srpska Liga - East · East - 5Stadion Begavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Budućnost Popovac56%

×Draw23%

Dunav Prahovo21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Budućnost PopovacExpected goals in this matchDunav Prahovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.06

Budućnost Popovac

1.87

Dunav Prahovo

1.06

Budućnost Popovac creates 76% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 79 away

1.84

creates per match

1.05

1.07

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.84

Dunav Prahovo

1.05

allows per match

Budućnost Popovac

1.07

Dunav Prahovo

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Budućnost Popovac+0.00on par

Dunav Prahovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Budućnost Popovac ↓

Dunav Prahovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Budućnost Popovac or draw

79%

Budućnost Popovac or Dunav Prahovo

77%

Draw or Dunav Prahovo

44%

Winning margin

Budućnost Popovac wins by 2+

32%

Dunav Prahovo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Budućnost Popovac 1+ goals

85%

Budućnost Popovac 2+ goals

56%

Budućnost Popovac 3+ goals

29%

Dunav Prahovo 1+ goals

65%

Dunav Prahovo 2+ goals

29%

Dunav Prahovo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Budućnost Popovac (draw refunded)

73%

Dunav Prahovo (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Budućnost Popovac at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 87 matches

Dunav Prahovo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Budućnost Popovac attack 1.84 + Dunav Prahovo defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.87

Dunav Prahovo attack 1.05 + Budućnost Popovac defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Budućnost Popovac scores more

56%

level

23%

Dunav Prahovo scores more

21%

Budućnost Popovac at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Budućnost Popovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff