Dunav ot Ruse II 4–0 Botev Novi Pazar

Dunav ot Ruse II

FT

4 – 0

Botev Novi Pazar

10/29/2022

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 11Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II55%

×Draw21%

Botev Novi Pazar24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav ot Ruse IIExpected goals in this matchBotev Novi Pazar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.31

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.08

Botev Novi Pazar

1.31

Dunav ot Ruse II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 90 away

1.19

creates per match

0.77

1.85

allows per match

2.98

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.19

Botev Novi Pazar

0.77

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.85

Botev Novi Pazar

2.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw

76%

Dunav ot Ruse II or Botev Novi Pazar

79%

Draw or Botev Novi Pazar

45%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

33%

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

87%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

61%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

34%

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals

73%

Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals

38%

Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

70%

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.08

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

55%

level

21%

Botev Novi Pazar scores more

24%

Dunav ot Ruse II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Dunav ot Ruse II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff