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Botev Novi Pazar vs Dunav ot Ruse II — Third League - Northeast 2018

Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
FT
2 – 1
Dunav ot Ruse II
Dunav ot Ruse II
5/7/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 26Stadion Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar55%
×Draw22%
Dunav ot Ruse II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Novi Pazar
1.96
Dunav ot Ruse II
1.21

Botev Novi Pazar creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 27 away

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.07
Dunav ot Ruse II
0.74

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.67
Dunav ot Ruse II
2.85

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw
77%
Botev Novi Pazar or Dunav ot Ruse II
78%
Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II
45%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
32%
Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
86%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
58%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
31%
Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals
70%
Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals
34%
Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
70%
Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more
55%
level
22%
Dunav ot Ruse II scores more
23%

Botev Novi Pazar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Novi Pazar vs Dunav ot Ruse II

Botev Novi Pazar beat Dunav ot Ruse II 2-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Botev in Novi pazar.