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Dunarea Calarasi vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
4/26/2021Liga IILiga II · Promotion Round - 5Stadionul Central Ion Comşa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi29%
×Draw25%
U Craiova 194846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunarea Calarasi
1.17
U Craiova 1948
1.56

U Craiova 1948 creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.24
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi
1.89
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw
54%
Dunarea Calarasi or U Craiova 1948
75%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
71%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
11%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
69%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
33%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
11%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
79%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
46%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
38%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.24 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more
29%
level
25%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
46%

U Craiova 1948 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U Craiova 1948 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dunarea Calarasi 1–1 U Craiova 1948

Dunarea Calarasi and U Craiova 1948 drew 1-1 in Liga II on April 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stadionul Central Ion Comşa in Călăraşi.