Dunarea Calarasi 1–3 CS Universitatea Craiova

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

CS Universitatea Craiova

8/12/2018

Liga I · Round 4Stadionul Central Ion Comşa (Călăraşi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi29%

×Draw29%

CS Universitatea Craiova43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.24

Dunarea Calarasi

0.96

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.24

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 157 away

0.81

creates per match

1.38

1.10

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

0.81

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.10

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

57%

Dunarea Calarasi or CS Universitatea Craiova

71%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

71%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

10%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

62%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

25%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

7%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

71%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

35%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

40%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.81 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.96

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

29%

level

29%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

43%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff