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CS Universitatea Craiova vs Dunarea Calarasi — Liga I 2026

CS Universitatea Craiova
CS Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dunarea Calarasi
Dunarea Calarasi
12/2/2018Liga ILiga I · Round 17Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova58%
×Draw27%
Dunarea Calarasi15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.44
Dunarea Calarasi
0.60

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 140% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 21 away

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Dunarea Calarasi
0.38

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova
0.82
Dunarea Calarasi
1.24

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw
85%
CS Universitatea Craiova or Dunarea Calarasi
73%
Draw or Dunarea Calarasi
42%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
30%
Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
76%
CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
42%
CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
18%
Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals
45%
Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals
12%
Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
79%
Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.82 · 157 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Dunarea Calarasi attack 0.38 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more
58%
level
27%
Dunarea Calarasi scores more
15%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Dunarea Calarasi

CS Universitatea Craiova beat Dunarea Calarasi 1-0 in Liga I on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco (Craiova).