Dunarea Calarasi 2–0 Axiopolis: Result & Stats

Dunarea Calarasi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Axiopolis

9/7/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 2Complex Municipal Dunărea Teren 1 Ion Comșa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dunarea Calarasi52%

×Draw22%

Axiopolis26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunarea CalarasiExpected goals in this matchAxiopolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.38

Dunarea Calarasi

2.01

Axiopolis

1.38

Dunarea Calarasi creates 46% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 52 away

1.90

creates per match

1.69

1.06

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.90

Axiopolis

1.69

allows per match

Dunarea Calarasi

1.06

Axiopolis

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Axiopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunarea Calarasi ↓

Axiopolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Dunarea Calarasi or draw

74%

Dunarea Calarasi or Axiopolis

78%

Draw or Axiopolis

48%

Winning margin

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

30%

Axiopolis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

87%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

59%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

32%

Axiopolis 1+ goals

75%

Axiopolis 2+ goals

40%

Axiopolis 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

66%

Axiopolis (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunarea Calarasi at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Axiopolis away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.90 + Axiopolis defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.01

Axiopolis attack 1.69 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

52%

level

22%

Axiopolis scores more

26%

Dunarea Calarasi at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Dunarea Calarasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff