Axiopolis 0–1 Dunarea Calarasi: Result & Stats

Axiopolis

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dunarea Calarasi

11/9/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadionul Ideal Cernavodă

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Axiopolis43%

×Draw23%

Dunarea Calarasi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AxiopolisExpected goals in this matchDunarea Calarasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.48

Axiopolis

1.69

Dunarea Calarasi

1.48

Axiopolis creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.90

creates per match

1.38

1.59

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Axiopolis

1.90

Dunarea Calarasi

1.38

allows per match

Axiopolis

1.59

Dunarea Calarasi

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par

Dunarea Calarasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Dunarea Calarasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw

66%

Axiopolis or Dunarea Calarasi

77%

Draw or Dunarea Calarasi

57%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+

22%

Dunarea Calarasi wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals

82%

Axiopolis 2+ goals

50%

Axiopolis 3+ goals

24%

Dunarea Calarasi 1+ goals

77%

Dunarea Calarasi 2+ goals

43%

Dunarea Calarasi 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)

56%

Dunarea Calarasi (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Dunarea Calarasi away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.48 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Dunarea Calarasi defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Dunarea Calarasi attack 1.38 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Axiopolis scores more

43%

level

23%

Dunarea Calarasi scores more

34%

Axiopolis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff