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Dunajska Streda vs AS Trencin — League #332 2026

Dunajska Streda
Dunajska Streda
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AS Trencin
AS Trencin
8/23/2025League #332League #332 · Round 5MOL Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunajska Streda62%
×Draw21%
AS Trencin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunajska Streda
2.07
AS Trencin
0.98

Dunajska Streda creates 111% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dunajska Streda
1.94
AS Trencin
1.13

allows per match

Dunajska Streda
0.83
AS Trencin
2.20

finishing

Dunajska Streda+0.00on par
AS Trencin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunajska Streda ↓

AS Trencin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dunajska Streda or draw
83%
Dunajska Streda or AS Trencin
79%
Draw or AS Trencin
38%

Winning margin

Dunajska Streda wins by 2+
38%
AS Trencin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dunajska Streda 1+ goals
87%
Dunajska Streda 2+ goals
61%
Dunajska Streda 3+ goals
34%
AS Trencin 1+ goals
62%
AS Trencin 2+ goals
26%
AS Trencin 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)
78%
AS Trencin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunajska Streda at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

AS Trencin away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunajska Streda attack 1.94 + AS Trencin defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.07

AS Trencin attack 1.13 + Dunajska Streda defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dunajska Streda scores more
62%
level
21%
AS Trencin scores more
17%

Dunajska Streda at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dunajska Streda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunajska Streda vs AS Trencin

Dunajska Streda beat AS Trencin 4-1 in League #332 on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at MOL Aréna in Dunajská Streda.