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AS Trencin vs Dunajska Streda — League #332 2026

AS Trencin
AS Trencin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dunajska Streda
Dunajska Streda
9/17/2024League #332League #332 · Round 6Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

AS Trencin26%
×Draw24%
Dunajska Streda50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Trencin
1.16
Dunajska Streda
1.70

Dunajska Streda creates 47% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

AS Trencin
1.38
Dunajska Streda
1.86

allows per match

AS Trencin
1.54
Dunajska Streda
0.93

finishing

AS Trencin+0.00on par
Dunajska Streda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Trencin ↓

Dunajska Streda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Trencin or draw
50%
AS Trencin or Dunajska Streda
76%
Draw or Dunajska Streda
74%

Winning margin

AS Trencin wins by 2+
10%
Dunajska Streda wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

AS Trencin 1+ goals
69%
AS Trencin 2+ goals
32%
AS Trencin 3+ goals
11%
Dunajska Streda 1+ goals
82%
Dunajska Streda 2+ goals
51%
Dunajska Streda 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

AS Trencin (draw refunded)
34%
Dunajska Streda (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Trencin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

Dunajska Streda away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Trencin attack 1.38 + Dunajska Streda defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.16

Dunajska Streda attack 1.86 + AS Trencin defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

AS Trencin scores more
26%
level
24%
Dunajska Streda scores more
50%

Dunajska Streda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dunajska Streda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Trencin vs Dunajska Streda

Dunajska Streda beat AS Trencin 3-0 in League #332 on September 17, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Na Sihoti in Trenčín.