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Dunaharaszti MTK vs Dunaföldvár — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaharaszti MTK
Dunaharaszti MTK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
8/28/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 5Dunaharaszti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaharaszti MTK54%
×Draw21%
Dunaföldvár24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaharaszti MTK
2.05
Dunaföldvár
1.31

Dunaharaszti MTK creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dunaharaszti MTK
1.00
Dunaföldvár
1.23

allows per match

Dunaharaszti MTK
1.40
Dunaföldvár
3.10

finishing

Dunaharaszti MTK+0.00on par
Dunaföldvár+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaharaszti MTK ↓

Dunaföldvár →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dunaharaszti MTK or draw
76%
Dunaharaszti MTK or Dunaföldvár
79%
Draw or Dunaföldvár
46%

Winning margin

Dunaharaszti MTK wins by 2+
32%
Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dunaharaszti MTK 1+ goals
87%
Dunaharaszti MTK 2+ goals
61%
Dunaharaszti MTK 3+ goals
33%
Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
73%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
38%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dunaharaszti MTK (draw refunded)
69%
Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaharaszti MTK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Dunaföldvár away — creates 1.23, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaharaszti MTK attack 1.00 + Dunaföldvár defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.05

Dunaföldvár attack 1.23 + Dunaharaszti MTK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dunaharaszti MTK scores more
54%
level
21%
Dunaföldvár scores more
24%

Dunaharaszti MTK at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dunaharaszti MTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunaharaszti MTK vs Dunaföldvár

Dunaharaszti MTK beat Dunaföldvár 2-1 in NB III - Southwest on August 28, 2024.

The match was played at Dunaharaszti Sportpálya in Dunaharaszti.