Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dunaföldvár vs Dunaharaszti MTK — NB III - Southwest 2019

Dunaföldvár
Dunaföldvár
FT
1 – 8
HT: 1 – 5
Dunaharaszti MTK
Dunaharaszti MTK
3/16/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaföldvár30%
×Draw22%
Dunaharaszti MTK48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunaföldvár
1.56
Dunaharaszti MTK
2.00

Dunaharaszti MTK creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Dunaföldvár
1.53
Dunaharaszti MTK
2.13

allows per match

Dunaföldvár
1.87
Dunaharaszti MTK
1.60

finishing

Dunaföldvár+0.00on par
Dunaharaszti MTK+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaföldvár ↓

Dunaharaszti MTK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Dunaföldvár or draw
52%
Dunaföldvár or Dunaharaszti MTK
78%
Draw or Dunaharaszti MTK
70%

Winning margin

Dunaföldvár wins by 2+
14%
Dunaharaszti MTK wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Dunaföldvár 1+ goals
79%
Dunaföldvár 2+ goals
46%
Dunaföldvár 3+ goals
21%
Dunaharaszti MTK 1+ goals
86%
Dunaharaszti MTK 2+ goals
59%
Dunaharaszti MTK 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Dunaföldvár (draw refunded)
39%
Dunaharaszti MTK (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaföldvár at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Dunaharaszti MTK away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaföldvár attack 1.53 + Dunaharaszti MTK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Dunaharaszti MTK attack 2.13 + Dunaföldvár defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dunaföldvár scores more
30%
level
22%
Dunaharaszti MTK scores more
48%

Dunaharaszti MTK at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dunaharaszti MTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Dunaföldvár 1–8 Dunaharaszti MTK

Dunaharaszti MTK beat Dunaföldvár 8-1 in NB III - Southwest on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Dunaföldvár FC Sporttelep in Dunaföldvár.