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Dumbrăviţa vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
3/16/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 19Stadionul Ştefan Dobay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Dumbrăviţa37%
×Draw28%
Csikszereda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbrăviţa
1.17
Csikszereda
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 81 away

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.19
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.13
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw
65%
Dumbrăviţa or Csikszereda
72%
Draw or Csikszereda
63%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
16%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
69%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
33%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
11%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
67%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
31%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
52%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more
37%
level
28%
Csikszereda scores more
35%

Dumbrăviţa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dumbrăviţa vs Csikszereda

Dumbrăviţa and Csikszereda drew 1-1 in Liga II on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan Dobay in Dumbrăvița.