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Csikszereda vs Dumbrăviţa — Liga II 2018

Csikszereda
Csikszereda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
10/22/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 11Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Csikszereda53%
×Draw25%
Dumbrăviţa22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Csikszereda
1.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.95

Csikszereda creates 68% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 54 away

creates per match

Csikszereda
1.55
Dumbrăviţa
0.94

allows per match

Csikszereda
0.96
Dumbrăviţa
1.65

finishing

Csikszereda+0.00on par
Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Csikszereda ↓

Dumbrăviţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Csikszereda or draw
78%
Csikszereda or Dumbrăviţa
75%
Draw or Dumbrăviţa
47%

Winning margin

Csikszereda wins by 2+
28%
Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Csikszereda 1+ goals
80%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
47%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
22%
Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
61%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
25%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Csikszereda (draw refunded)
70%
Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Csikszereda at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Dumbrăviţa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Csikszereda attack 1.55 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Dumbrăviţa attack 0.94 + Csikszereda defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Csikszereda scores more
53%
level
25%
Dumbrăviţa scores more
22%

Csikszereda at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Csikszereda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Csikszereda vs Dumbrăviţa

Csikszereda beat Dumbrăviţa 3-0 in Liga II on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Miercurea Ciuc.