Dumbarton 1–2 Stirling Albion: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Stirling Albion

7/9/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 2The moreroom.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton26%

×Draw22%

Stirling Albion52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchStirling Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.90

Dumbarton

1.28

Stirling Albion

1.90

Stirling Albion creates 48% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

0.86

creates per match

1.29

2.50

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Dumbarton

0.86

Stirling Albion

1.29

allows per match

Dumbarton

2.50

Stirling Albion

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Stirling Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

48%

Dumbarton or Stirling Albion

78%

Draw or Stirling Albion

74%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

11%

Stirling Albion wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

72%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

37%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

14%

Stirling Albion 1+ goals

85%

Stirling Albion 2+ goals

56%

Stirling Albion 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

33%

Stirling Albion (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Stirling Albion defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Stirling Albion attack 1.29 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Dumbarton scores more

26%

level

22%

Stirling Albion scores more

52%

Stirling Albion at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stirling Albion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff