Dumbarton 1–0 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Dumbarton

FT

1 – 0

Motherwell

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Dumbarton71%

×Draw21%

Motherwell7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DumbartonExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.38

Dumbarton

1.75

Motherwell

0.38

Dumbarton creates 361% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.50

creates per match

0.00

0.75

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Dumbarton

0.50

Motherwell

0.00

allows per match

Dumbarton

0.75

Motherwell

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Motherwell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw

93%

Dumbarton or Motherwell

79%

Draw or Motherwell

29%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+

43%

Motherwell wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals

83%

Dumbarton 2+ goals

52%

Dumbarton 3+ goals

25%

Motherwell 1+ goals

32%

Motherwell 2+ goals

6%

Motherwell 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)

91%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Motherwell away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.50 + Motherwell defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Motherwell attack 0.00 + Dumbarton defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Dumbarton scores more

71%

level

21%

Motherwell scores more

7%

Dumbarton at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Dumbarton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff