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Dumbarton vs Motherwell — League Cup 2018

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Motherwell
Motherwell
7/23/2019League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6The C&G Systems Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dumbarton14%
×Draw20%
Motherwell67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
0.82
Motherwell
2.10

Motherwell creates 156% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
0.86
Motherwell
1.71

allows per match

Dumbarton
2.50
Motherwell
0.79

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Motherwell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
33%
Dumbarton or Motherwell
80%
Draw or Motherwell
86%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
4%
Motherwell wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
56%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
20%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
5%
Motherwell 1+ goals
88%
Motherwell 2+ goals
62%
Motherwell 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
17%
Motherwell (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.50 · 14 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 0.86 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.82

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Dumbarton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dumbarton scores more
14%
level
20%
Motherwell scores more
67%

Motherwell at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Dumbarton 0–2 Motherwell

Motherwell beat Dumbarton 2-0 in League Cup on July 23, 2019.

The match was played at The C&G Systems Stadium in Dumbarton.