Dulwich Hill 4–1 Blacktown Spartans: Result & Stats

Dulwich Hill

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Blacktown Spartans

G. Paradanta 77'

E. Zervas 66'

D. Fornito 64', 4'

A. Chance 32'

5/25/2024

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Arlington Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Dulwich Hill35%

×Draw24%

Blacktown Spartans41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dulwich HillExpected goals in this matchBlacktown Spartans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.64

Dulwich Hill

1.51

Blacktown Spartans

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 73 away

1.35

creates per match

1.45

1.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dulwich Hill

1.35

Blacktown Spartans

1.45

allows per match

Dulwich Hill

1.82

Blacktown Spartans

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dulwich Hill ↓

Blacktown Spartans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dulwich Hill or draw

59%

Dulwich Hill or Blacktown Spartans

76%

Draw or Blacktown Spartans

65%

Winning margin

Dulwich Hill wins by 2+

17%

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Dulwich Hill 1+ goals

78%

Dulwich Hill 2+ goals

44%

Dulwich Hill 3+ goals

19%

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals

81%

Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals

49%

Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)

46%

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dulwich Hill at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dulwich Hill attack 1.35 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + Dulwich Hill defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dulwich Hill scores more

35%

level

24%

Blacktown Spartans scores more

41%

Blacktown Spartans at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Fornito

32'

A. Chance

64'

D. Fornito

66'

E. Zervas

77'

G. Paradanta

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff