Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blacktown Spartans vs Dulwich Hill — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dulwich Hill
Dulwich Hill
D. Ellem 90'
A. Kyra 32'
J. Webber 20'
3/6/2026New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Blacktown Spartans53%
×Draw21%
Dulwich Hill26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
2.09
Dulwich Hill
1.43

Blacktown Spartans creates 46% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 57 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
Dulwich Hill
1.30

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
Dulwich Hill
2.23

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
Dulwich Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

Dulwich Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
74%
Blacktown Spartans or Dulwich Hill
79%
Draw or Dulwich Hill
47%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
31%
Dulwich Hill wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
88%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
62%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
34%
Dulwich Hill 1+ goals
76%
Dulwich Hill 2+ goals
42%
Dulwich Hill 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
67%
Dulwich Hill (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

Dulwich Hill away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.23 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + Dulwich Hill defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.09

Dulwich Hill attack 1.30 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
53%
level
21%
Dulwich Hill scores more
26%

Blacktown Spartans at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Blacktown Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
J. Webber
32'
A. Kyra
90'
D. Ellem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blacktown Spartans 2 – 1 Dulwich Hill

Blacktown Spartans beat Dulwich Hill 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 6, 2026.

Goals: J. Webber (20'), A. Kyra (32'), D. Ellem (90').