Dukla Praha W 0–1 Baník Ostrava W: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha W

FT

0 – 1

Baník Ostrava W

9/11/2022

1. Liga Women · Round 3Hřiště Drnovská

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dukla Praha W43%

×Draw20%

Baník Ostrava W37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla Praha WExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

2.19

Dukla Praha W

2.37

Baník Ostrava W

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.40

creates per match

1.27

3.10

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Dukla Praha W

1.40

Baník Ostrava W

1.27

allows per match

Dukla Praha W

3.10

Baník Ostrava W

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Dukla Praha W or draw

63%

Dukla Praha W or Baník Ostrava W

80%

Draw or Baník Ostrava W

57%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

25%

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

91%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

68%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

42%

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals

89%

Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals

64%

Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

54%

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha W at home — creates 1.40, concedes 3.10 · 30 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha W attack 1.40 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.37

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dukla Praha W scores more

43%

level

20%

Baník Ostrava W scores more

37%

Dukla Praha W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dukla Praha W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff