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Baník Ostrava W vs Dukla Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
FT
0 – 4
Dukla Praha W
Dukla Praha W
11/5/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 10Radvanice Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baník Ostrava W54%
×Draw20%
Dukla Praha W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava W
2.37
Dukla Praha W
1.60

Baník Ostrava W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W
1.00
Dukla Praha W
0.53

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W
2.67
Dukla Praha W
3.73

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par
Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

Dukla Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
75%25%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw
74%
Baník Ostrava W or Dukla Praha W
80%
Draw or Dukla Praha W
46%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
34%
Dukla Praha W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
91%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
68%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
42%
Dukla Praha W 1+ goals
80%
Dukla Praha W 2+ goals
47%
Dukla Praha W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
68%
Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.37

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more
54%
level
20%
Dukla Praha W scores more
26%

Baník Ostrava W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Ostrava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs Dukla Praha W

Dukla Praha W beat Baník Ostrava W 4-0 in 1. Liga Women on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Radvanice Stadion in Radvanice.