Dukla Praha 5–1 Vlašim: Result & Stats | FNL

Dukla Praha

FT

5 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

Vlašim

5/4/2024

FNL · Round 26Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha50%

×Draw24%

Vlašim26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchVlašim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Dukla Praha

1.75

Vlašim

1.19

Dukla Praha creates 47% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 103 away

1.93

creates per match

1.25

1.12

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Dukla Praha

1.93

Vlašim

1.25

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.12

Vlašim

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Vlašim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Vlašim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

74%

Dukla Praha or Vlašim

76%

Draw or Vlašim

50%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

27%

Vlašim wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

83%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

52%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

25%

Vlašim 1+ goals

70%

Vlašim 2+ goals

33%

Vlašim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

66%

Vlašim (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Vlašim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Vlašim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vlašim attack 1.25 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

50%

level

24%

Vlašim scores more

26%

Dukla Praha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff