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Dukla Praha vs Vlašim — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vlašim
Vlašim
12/1/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Vladivostocká UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dukla Praha62%
×Draw19%
Vlašim19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Praha
2.42
Vlašim
1.27

Dukla Praha creates 91% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dukla Praha
2.56
Vlašim
1.43

allows per match

Dukla Praha
1.11
Vlašim
2.29

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par
Vlašim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Vlašim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw
81%
Dukla Praha or Vlašim
81%
Draw or Vlašim
38%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+
41%
Vlašim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals
91%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
69%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
43%
Vlašim 1+ goals
72%
Vlašim 2+ goals
36%
Vlašim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
77%
Vlašim (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Vlašim away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 2.56 + Vlašim defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.42

Vlašim attack 1.43 + Dukla Praha defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dukla Praha scores more
62%
level
19%
Vlašim scores more
19%

Dukla Praha at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dukla Praha 3–0 Vlašim

Dukla Praha beat Vlašim 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Vladivostocká UMT in Praha.