Dukla Praha 1–2 Baník Ostrava: Result & Stats

Dukla Praha

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baník Ostrava

J. Hora 45+2' (pen)

M. Frydrych 90+1'

J. Boula 20'

4/12/2025

Czech Liga · Round 29Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dukla Praha37%

×Draw27%

Baník Ostrava36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchBaník Ostrava

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.22

Dukla Praha

1.23

Baník Ostrava

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

0.88

creates per match

1.06

1.37

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Dukla Praha

0.88

Baník Ostrava

1.06

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.37

Baník Ostrava

1.57

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.12scores more

Baník Ostrava+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Baník Ostrava →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

64%

Dukla Praha or Baník Ostrava

73%

Draw or Baník Ostrava

63%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

16%

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

71%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

35%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

13%

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

70%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

34%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

50%

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 7 matches

Baník Ostrava away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 0.88 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Baník Ostrava attack 1.06 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

37%

level

27%

Baník Ostrava scores more

36%

Dukla Praha at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Frydrych

Baník Ostrava · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

J. Boula

44'

Matěj Šín

45'

Filip ŠpatenkaPenalty confirmed

45+2'

J. HoraPenalty

46'

Jorginho← F. Špatenka

64'

64'

78'

82'

86'

86'

89'

D. Owusu← Ewerton

90+3'

Erik Prekop

90+1'

M. Frydrych↳ K. Pojezný

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DuklaBaník

Overview

39%Possession61%

15Total Shots18

1.53Expected Goals (xG)2.37

5Corners4

5Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots18

6On Target4

4Off Target10

5Blocked4

8Inside Box14

7Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

332Total Passes521

246Accurate Passes450

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava

Baník Ostrava beat Dukla Praha 2-1 in Czech Liga on April 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Boula (20'), J. Hora (45+2' pen), M. Frydrych (90+1').

Baník Ostrava controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.

Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Dukla Praha vs Baník Ostrava