Baník Ostrava 6–0 Dukla Praha: Result & Stats

Baník Ostrava

FT

6 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Dukla Praha

Ewerton 63', 13'

D. Hašek 57' (OG)

E. Prekop 51', 41'

D. Buchta 16'

11/9/2024

Czech Liga · Round 15Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Baník Ostrava55%

×Draw23%

Dukla Praha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník OstravaExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.07

Baník Ostrava

1.81

Dukla Praha

1.07

Baník Ostrava creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.26

creates per match

0.87

1.27

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Baník Ostrava

2.26

Dukla Praha

0.87

allows per match

Baník Ostrava

1.27

Dukla Praha

1.37

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.67scores less than expected

finishing

Baník Ostrava-0.06on par

Dukla Praha-0.67scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava ↓

Dukla Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava or draw

78%

Baník Ostrava or Dukla Praha

77%

Draw or Dukla Praha

45%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava wins by 2+

31%

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava 1+ goals

84%

Baník Ostrava 2+ goals

54%

Baník Ostrava 3+ goals

27%

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

66%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

29%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava (draw refunded)

71%

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.27 · 5 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.37 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava attack 2.26 + Dukla Praha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dukla Praha attack 0.87 + Baník Ostrava defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Baník Ostrava scores more

55%

level

23%

Dukla Praha scores more

22%

Baník Ostrava at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Baník Ostrava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

Ewerton

Baník Ostrava · F

9.9

Match Events

13'

Ewerton↳ U. Aririerisim

16'

D. Buchta↳ Ewerton

41'

E. Prekop↳ T. Rigo

46'

M. Doda← M. Douděra

46'

O. Ullman← F. Matoušek

46'

R. Holiš← D. Ludvíček

48'

Jakub Hora

51'

E. Prekop

57'

D. HašekOwn goal

59'

C. Bačinský← J. Hora

63'

Ewerton

64'

J. Juroška← D. Buchta

64'

R. Šudák← M. Šín

64'

F. Kubala← E. Prekop

72'

L. Matějka← Š. Šebrle

74'

S. Grygar← J. Boula

79'

A. Tanko← Ewerton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaníkDukla

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots4

5Corners1

9Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots4

7On Target1

5Off Target1

3Blocked2

8Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

535Total Passes394

440Accurate Passes305

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1