Dukla Praha 0–1 Artis: Result & Stats | FNL

Dukla Praha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Artis

G. Reteno Elekana 90'

7/29/2022

FNL · Round 1Stadion Juliska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Dukla Praha46%

×Draw25%

Artis29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dukla PrahaExpected goals in this matchArtis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.20

Dukla Praha

1.57

Artis

1.20

Dukla Praha creates 31% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 103 away

1.93

creates per match

1.28

1.12

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Dukla Praha

1.93

Artis

1.28

allows per match

Dukla Praha

1.12

Artis

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Praha ↓

Artis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dukla Praha or draw

71%

Dukla Praha or Artis

75%

Draw or Artis

54%

Winning margin

Dukla Praha wins by 2+

23%

Artis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Dukla Praha 1+ goals

79%

Dukla Praha 2+ goals

46%

Dukla Praha 3+ goals

21%

Artis 1+ goals

70%

Artis 2+ goals

34%

Artis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dukla Praha (draw refunded)

61%

Artis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Praha at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Praha attack 1.93 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Artis attack 1.28 + Dukla Praha defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dukla Praha scores more

46%

level

25%

Artis scores more

29%

Dukla Praha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dukla Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

P. Vandas

39'

M. Jerabek

45+1'

M. Matocha

46'

Kim Seung-bin← Š. Šebrle

46'

Š. Šumbera← T. Ulbrich

55'

63'

66'

68'

70'

J. Hrubeš← M. Červenka

70'

L. Matějka← L. Buchvaldek

75'

E. Otrísal← D. Machalík

85'

V. Minařík← P. Sokol

85'

G. Reteno Elekana← A. Čermák

86'

J. Hodek← P. Moulis

90'

G. Reteno Elekana

90'

G. Reteno Elekana

Dukla

Artis

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Rada

46'▲Kim Seung-bin←▼Š. Šebrle

70'▲J. Hrubeš←▼M. Červenka

70'▲L. Matějka←▼L. Buchvaldek

86'▲J. Hodek←▼P. Moulis

Dukla Praha substitutes

Seung-binHrubešMatějkaHodek

Manager: P. Maléř

46'▲Š. Šumbera←▼T. Ulbrich

63'▲M. Zikl←▼P. Vandas

75'▲E. Otrísal←▼D. Machalík

85'▲V. Minařík←▼P. Sokol

85'▲G. Reteno Elekana←▼A. Čermák

Artis substitutes

ŠumberaZiklOtrísalMinaříkElekana

FNL: Dukla Praha 0–1 Artis

Artis beat Dukla Praha 1-0 in FNL on July 29, 2022.

Goals: G. Reteno Elekana (90').

The match was played at Stadion Juliska in Praha.

Dukla Praha vs Artis — FNL 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FNL: Dukla Praha 0–1 Artis