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Artis vs Dukla Praha — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Dukla Praha
Dukla Praha
5/28/2023FNLFNL · Round 30Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Artis42%
×Draw26%
Dukla Praha32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.47
Dukla Praha
1.25

Artis creates 18% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 73 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Dukla Praha
1.41

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Dukla Praha
1.41

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Dukla Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Dukla Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Artis or draw
68%
Artis or Dukla Praha
74%
Draw or Dukla Praha
58%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
20%
Dukla Praha wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
77%
Artis 2+ goals
43%
Artis 3+ goals
18%
Dukla Praha 1+ goals
71%
Dukla Praha 2+ goals
36%
Dukla Praha 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
57%
Dukla Praha (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Dukla Praha away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.41 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Dukla Praha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dukla Praha attack 1.41 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Artis scores more
42%
level
26%
Dukla Praha scores more
32%

Artis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artis vs Dukla Praha

Dukla Praha beat Artis 3-1 in FNL on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.