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Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Tatran Prešov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
1/10/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Futbalový Štadión Radvaň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica72%
×Draw17%
Tatran Prešov11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.31
Tatran Prešov
0.76

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 204% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.26
Tatran Prešov
0.57

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
0.95
Tatran Prešov
2.36

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw
89%
Dukla Banská Bystrica or Tatran Prešov
83%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
28%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
48%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
90%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
67%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
40%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
53%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
18%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
87%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.26 + Tatran Prešov defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.31

Tatran Prešov attack 0.57 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
72%
level
17%
Tatran Prešov scores more
11%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dukla Banská Bystrica 4–2 Tatran Prešov

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Tatran Prešov 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 10, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový Štadión Radvaň in Banská Bystrica.