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Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Dubnica — 2. liga 2019

Dukla Banská Bystrica
Dukla Banská Bystrica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
4/16/20222. liga2. liga · Round 25Štadión SNP Štiavničky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica63%
×Draw19%
Dubnica17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.27
Dubnica
1.10

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 106% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

creates per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
2.65
Dubnica
1.20

allows per match

Dukla Banská Bystrica
1.00
Dubnica
1.89

finishing

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukla Banská Bystrica ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dukla Banská Bystrica or draw
83%
Dukla Banská Bystrica or Dubnica
81%
Draw or Dubnica
37%

Winning margin

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+
41%
Dubnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals
90%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals
66%
Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals
39%
Dubnica 1+ goals
67%
Dubnica 2+ goals
30%
Dubnica 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)
79%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukla Banská Bystrica at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 2.65 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more
63%
level
19%
Dubnica scores more
17%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Dubnica

Dukla Banská Bystrica beat Dubnica 1-0 in 2. liga on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión SNP Štiavničky in Banská Bystrica.