Dubnica 4–1 Dukla Banská Bystrica: Result & Stats

Dubnica

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Dukla Banská Bystrica

7/11/2020

2. liga · Promotion Round - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dubnica31%

×Draw25%

Dukla Banská Bystrica44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubnicaExpected goals in this matchDukla Banská Bystrica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.54

Dubnica

1.25

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.54

Dukla Banská Bystrica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

1.82

1.27

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Dubnica

1.44

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.82

allows per match

Dubnica

1.27

Dukla Banská Bystrica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par

Dukla Banská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw

56%

Dubnica or Dukla Banská Bystrica

75%

Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica

69%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+

13%

Dukla Banská Bystrica wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals

71%

Dubnica 2+ goals

36%

Dubnica 3+ goals

13%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1+ goals

79%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 2+ goals

45%

Dukla Banská Bystrica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)

41%

Dukla Banská Bystrica (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Dukla Banská Bystrica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dukla Banská Bystrica attack 1.82 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dubnica scores more

31%

level

25%

Dukla Banská Bystrica scores more

44%

Dukla Banská Bystrica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dukla Banská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff