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Duhok vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Duhok
Duhok
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
B. Sambou 11'
12/23/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 8Duhok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Duhok49%
×Draw27%
Al Najaf23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.41
Al Najaf
0.88

Duhok creates 60% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 31 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.20
Al Najaf
0.81

allows per match

Duhok
0.94
Al Najaf
1.61

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
77%
Duhok or Al Najaf
73%
Draw or Al Najaf
51%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
24%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
76%
Duhok 2+ goals
41%
Duhok 3+ goals
17%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
59%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
22%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
68%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.20 + Al Najaf defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Al Najaf attack 0.81 + Duhok defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Duhok scores more
49%
level
27%
Al Najaf scores more
23%

Duhok at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
B. Sambou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Duhok vs Al Najaf

Duhok beat Al Najaf 1-0 in Iraqi League on December 23, 2025.

Goals: B. Sambou (11').

The match was played at Duhok Stadium in Duhok.