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Al Najaf vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2025

Al Najaf
Al Najaf
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Duhok
Duhok
A. Louay 71'
Z. Ibrahim 90'
P. Gwargis 45' (pen)
4/27/2026Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 31Duhok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al Najaf35%
×Draw27%
Duhok39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Najaf
1.25
Duhok
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 42 away

creates per match

Al Najaf
1.23
Duhok
1.26

allows per match

Al Najaf
1.40
Duhok
1.26

finishing

Al Najaf+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Najaf ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Najaf or draw
61%
Al Najaf or Duhok
73%
Draw or Duhok
65%

Winning margin

Al Najaf wins by 2+
15%
Duhok wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Najaf 1+ goals
71%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
36%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
13%
Duhok 1+ goals
74%
Duhok 2+ goals
38%
Duhok 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Najaf (draw refunded)
47%
Duhok (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Najaf at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Najaf attack 1.23 + Duhok defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Duhok attack 1.26 + Al Najaf defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Najaf scores more
35%
level
27%
Duhok scores more
39%

Duhok at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
P. GwargisPenalty
71'
A. Louay
90'
Z. Ibrahim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Najaf 1–2 Duhok

Duhok beat Al Najaf 2-1 in Iraqi League on April 27, 2026.

Goals: P. Gwargis (45' pen), A. Louay (71'), Z. Ibrahim (90').

The match was played at Duhok Stadium in Duhok.