Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Duhok vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2025

Duhok
Duhok
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Leo Costa 67'
K. Darwiche 56'
Y. Ghani 90'
M. Khalid Kofi 81'
Y. Hamoud 12'
9/27/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Duhok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Duhok39%
×Draw29%
Al Karkh32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Duhok
1.19
Al Karkh
1.06

Duhok creates 12% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

creates per match

Duhok
1.19
Al Karkh
1.20

allows per match

Duhok
0.92
Al Karkh
1.20

finishing

Duhok+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Duhok ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Duhok or draw
68%
Duhok or Al Karkh
71%
Draw or Al Karkh
61%

Winning margin

Duhok wins by 2+
17%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Duhok 1+ goals
70%
Duhok 2+ goals
33%
Duhok 3+ goals
12%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
65%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
29%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Duhok (draw refunded)
55%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Duhok at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 37 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Duhok attack 1.19 + Al Karkh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al Karkh attack 1.20 + Duhok defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Duhok scores more
39%
level
29%
Al Karkh scores more
32%

Duhok at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Duhok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Y. Hamoud
56'
K. Darwiche
67'
Leo Costa
81'
M. Khalid Kofi
90+11'
A. Yaseen
90+14'
90'
Y. Ghani

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Duhok 2 – 3 Al Karkh

Al Karkh beat Duhok 3-2 in Iraqi League on September 27, 2025.

Goals: Y. Hamoud (12'), K. Darwiche (56'), Leo Costa (67'), M. Khalid Kofi (81'), Y. Ghani (90').

The match was played at Duhok Stadium in Duhok.