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Al Karkh vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2021

Al Karkh
Al Karkh
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Duhok
Duhok
I. Eze 84'
B. Okoronkwo 15'
K. Darwiche 58'
P. Abdulla 48', 39'
Marlon 4'
7/3/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 38Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Karkh36%
×Draw29%
Duhok35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Karkh
1.10
Duhok
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Karkh
1.05
Duhok
1.05

allows per match

Al Karkh
1.14
Duhok
1.16

finishing

Al Karkh+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Karkh ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Karkh or draw
65%
Al Karkh or Duhok
71%
Draw or Duhok
64%

Winning margin

Al Karkh wins by 2+
14%
Duhok wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Karkh 1+ goals
67%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
30%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
10%
Duhok 1+ goals
66%
Duhok 2+ goals
30%
Duhok 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Karkh (draw refunded)
50%
Duhok (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Karkh at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Karkh attack 1.05 + Duhok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Duhok attack 1.05 + Al Karkh defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Karkh scores more
36%
level
29%
Duhok scores more
35%

Al Karkh at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Marlon
15'
B. Okoronkwo
39'
P. Abdulla
48'
P. Abdulla
58'
K. Darwiche
84'
I. Eze

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Karkh 2 – 4 Duhok

Duhok beat Al Karkh 4-2 in Iraqi League on July 3, 2025.

Goals: Marlon (4'), B. Okoronkwo (15'), P. Abdulla (39', 48'), K. Darwiche (58'), I. Eze (84').

The match was played at Al Saher Ahmed Radhi Stadium in Baghdād.