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Dugopolje vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018

Dugopolje
Dugopolje
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
9/13/2025First NLFirst NL · Round 5Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dugopolje50%
×Draw26%
Croatia Zmijavci24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugopolje
1.52
Croatia Zmijavci
0.98

Dugopolje creates 55% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dugopolje
1.36
Croatia Zmijavci
0.90

allows per match

Dugopolje
1.05
Croatia Zmijavci
1.67

finishing

Dugopolje+0.00on par
Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugopolje ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dugopolje or draw
76%
Dugopolje or Croatia Zmijavci
74%
Draw or Croatia Zmijavci
50%

Winning margin

Dugopolje wins by 2+
25%
Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dugopolje 1+ goals
78%
Dugopolje 2+ goals
45%
Dugopolje 3+ goals
20%
Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
62%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
26%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dugopolje (draw refunded)
67%
Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugopolje at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.05 · 122 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugopolje attack 1.36 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Dugopolje defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dugopolje scores more
50%
level
26%
Croatia Zmijavci scores more
24%

Dugopolje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dugopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dugopolje 2–0 Croatia Zmijavci

Dugopolje beat Croatia Zmijavci 2-0 in First NL on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hrvatski Vitezovi in Dugopolje.