Croatia Zmijavci 1–0 Dugopolje: Result & Stats

Croatia Zmijavci

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dugopolje

2/16/2025

First NL · Round 18Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci48%

×Draw26%

Dugopolje26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia ZmijavciExpected goals in this matchDugopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.04

Croatia Zmijavci

1.52

Dugopolje

1.04

Croatia Zmijavci creates 46% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 119 away

1.46

creates per match

1.03

1.06

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.46

Dugopolje

1.03

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.06

Dugopolje

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Dugopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Dugopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw

74%

Croatia Zmijavci or Dugopolje

74%

Draw or Dugopolje

52%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

24%

Dugopolje wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

78%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

45%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

20%

Dugopolje 1+ goals

65%

Dugopolje 2+ goals

28%

Dugopolje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

65%

Dugopolje (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Dugopolje away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Dugopolje defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Dugopolje attack 1.03 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

48%

level

26%

Dugopolje scores more

26%

Croatia Zmijavci at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Croatia Zmijavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff