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Dugo Selo vs Belišće — Second NL 2022

Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 0
Belišće
Belišće
6/1/2024Second NLSecond NL · Round 30Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dugo Selo53%
×Draw23%
Belišće24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dugo Selo
1.88
Belišće
1.20

Dugo Selo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dugo Selo
1.35
Belišće
1.07

allows per match

Dugo Selo
1.33
Belišće
2.40

finishing

Dugo Selo+0.00on par
Belišće+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dugo Selo ↓

Belišće →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dugo Selo or draw
76%
Dugo Selo or Belišće
77%
Draw or Belišće
47%

Winning margin

Dugo Selo wins by 2+
30%
Belišće wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dugo Selo 1+ goals
85%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
56%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
29%
Belišće 1+ goals
70%
Belišće 2+ goals
34%
Belišće 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
69%
Belišće (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dugo Selo at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

Belišće away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dugo Selo attack 1.35 + Belišće defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Belišće attack 1.07 + Dugo Selo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dugo Selo scores more
53%
level
23%
Belišće scores more
24%

Dugo Selo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dugo Selo vs Belišće

Dugo Selo beat Belišće 5-2 in Second NL on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Dugo Selo.