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Belišće vs Dugo Selo — Second NL 2022

Belišće
Belišće
FT
0 – 5
Dugo Selo
Dugo Selo
3/18/2023Second NLSecond NL · Round 19Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Belišće34%
×Draw25%
Dugo Selo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belišće
1.32
Dugo Selo
1.48

Dugo Selo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Belišće
0.93
Dugo Selo
1.25

allows per match

Belišće
1.70
Dugo Selo
1.72

finishing

Belišće+0.00on par
Dugo Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belišće ↓

Dugo Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Belišće or draw
59%
Belišće or Dugo Selo
75%
Draw or Dugo Selo
66%

Winning margin

Belišće wins by 2+
15%
Dugo Selo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Belišće 1+ goals
73%
Belišće 2+ goals
38%
Belišće 3+ goals
15%
Dugo Selo 1+ goals
77%
Dugo Selo 2+ goals
43%
Dugo Selo 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Belišće (draw refunded)
45%
Dugo Selo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belišće at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Dugo Selo away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belišće attack 0.93 + Dugo Selo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dugo Selo attack 1.25 + Belišće defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Belišće scores more
34%
level
25%
Dugo Selo scores more
41%

Dugo Selo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dugo Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second NL: Belišće 0–5 Dugo Selo

Dugo Selo beat Belišće 5-0 in Second NL on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Belišće.