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Dubrava Zagreb vs Croatia Zmijavci — First NL 2018

Dubrava Zagreb
Dubrava Zagreb
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Croatia Zmijavci
Croatia Zmijavci
3/21/2026First NLFirst NL · Round 23SRC Pescenica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Dubrava Zagreb48%
×Draw26%
Croatia Zmijavci26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubrava Zagreb
1.52
Croatia Zmijavci
1.04

Dubrava Zagreb creates 46% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 109 away

creates per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.37
Croatia Zmijavci
0.90

allows per match

Dubrava Zagreb
1.19
Croatia Zmijavci
1.67

finishing

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par
Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubrava Zagreb ↓

Croatia Zmijavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dubrava Zagreb or draw
74%
Dubrava Zagreb or Croatia Zmijavci
74%
Draw or Croatia Zmijavci
52%

Winning margin

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+
24%
Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals
78%
Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals
45%
Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals
20%
Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals
65%
Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals
28%
Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)
65%
Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubrava Zagreb at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

Croatia Zmijavci away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.67 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubrava Zagreb attack 1.37 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Croatia Zmijavci attack 0.90 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dubrava Zagreb scores more
48%
level
26%
Croatia Zmijavci scores more
26%

Dubrava Zagreb at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dubrava Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Dubrava Zagreb 2–1 Croatia Zmijavci

Dubrava Zagreb beat Croatia Zmijavci 2-1 in First NL on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at SRC Pescenica in Zagreb.