Croatia Zmijavci 3–1 Dubrava Zagreb: Result & Stats

Croatia Zmijavci

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Dubrava Zagreb

3/16/2025

First NL · Round 22Stadion ŠRC Marijan Šuto Mrma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Croatia Zmijavci46%

×Draw27%

Dubrava Zagreb27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Croatia ZmijavciExpected goals in this matchDubrava Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.02

Croatia Zmijavci

1.41

Dubrava Zagreb

1.02

Croatia Zmijavci creates 38% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 106 away

1.46

creates per match

0.98

1.06

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.46

Dubrava Zagreb

0.98

allows per match

Croatia Zmijavci

1.06

Dubrava Zagreb

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Croatia Zmijavci+0.00on par

Dubrava Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Croatia Zmijavci ↓

Dubrava Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Croatia Zmijavci or draw

73%

Croatia Zmijavci or Dubrava Zagreb

73%

Draw or Dubrava Zagreb

54%

Winning margin

Croatia Zmijavci wins by 2+

22%

Dubrava Zagreb wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Croatia Zmijavci 1+ goals

76%

Croatia Zmijavci 2+ goals

41%

Croatia Zmijavci 3+ goals

17%

Dubrava Zagreb 1+ goals

64%

Dubrava Zagreb 2+ goals

27%

Dubrava Zagreb 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Croatia Zmijavci (draw refunded)

63%

Dubrava Zagreb (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Croatia Zmijavci at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.06 · 106 matches

Dubrava Zagreb away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Croatia Zmijavci attack 1.46 + Dubrava Zagreb defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Dubrava Zagreb attack 0.98 + Croatia Zmijavci defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Croatia Zmijavci scores more

46%

level

27%

Dubrava Zagreb scores more

27%

Croatia Zmijavci at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Croatia Zmijavci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff