Dubočica 1–2 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Dubočica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Vranje

4/24/2021

Prva Liga · Round 29Gradski stadion pod Hisarom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Dubočica42%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Vranje30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DubočicaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Dubočica

1.28

Dinamo Vranje

1.03

Dubočica creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 33 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

1.19

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Dubočica

1.18

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

Dubočica

1.19

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw

70%

Dubočica or Dinamo Vranje

72%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

58%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+

19%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals

72%

Dubočica 2+ goals

37%

Dubočica 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

64%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

28%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)

59%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.19 · 74 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 1.18 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.28

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + Dubočica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dubočica scores more

42%

level

28%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

30%

Dubočica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff