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Dinamo Vranje vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
CANC
14:30
Dubočica
Dubočica
4/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 23Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Dinamo Vranje38%
×Draw24%
Dubočica38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
1.54
Dubočica
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 37 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
2.00
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.50
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
62%
Dinamo Vranje or Dubočica
76%
Draw or Dubočica
62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
18%
Dubočica wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
20%
Dubočica 1+ goals
79%
Dubočica 2+ goals
45%
Dubočica 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
50%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 2.00 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
38%
level
24%
Dubočica scores more
38%

Dinamo Vranje at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dinamo Vranje vs Dubočica — Match Preview

Dinamo Vranje face Dubočica on April 20, 2022 in this Srpska Liga - East fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Dinamo Vranje host Dubočica at Stadion YUMCO.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.