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Dubočica vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Dubočica
Dubočica
FT
3 – 0
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
8/20/2022Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Gradski stadion pod Hisarom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Dubočica64%
×Draw19%
Car Konstantin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubočica
2.29
Car Konstantin
1.08

Dubočica creates 112% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 42 away

creates per match

Dubočica
2.21
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Dubočica
0.97
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Dubočica+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubočica ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Dubočica or draw
83%
Dubočica or Car Konstantin
81%
Draw or Car Konstantin
36%

Winning margin

Dubočica wins by 2+
41%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dubočica 1+ goals
90%
Dubočica 2+ goals
66%
Dubočica 3+ goals
40%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
66%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
29%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dubočica (draw refunded)
79%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubočica at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubočica attack 2.21 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Dubočica defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dubočica scores more
64%
level
19%
Car Konstantin scores more
17%

Dubočica at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubočica vs Car Konstantin

Dubočica beat Car Konstantin 3-0 in Srpska Liga - East on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion pod Hisarom in Leskovac.