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Car Konstantin vs Dubočica — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
FT
0 – 4
Dubočica
Dubočica
3/12/2023Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion na Bubnju

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Car Konstantin33%
×Draw24%
Dubočica42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Car Konstantin
1.38
Dubočica
1.58

Dubočica creates 14% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 37 away

creates per match

Car Konstantin
1.67
Dubočica
1.57

allows per match

Car Konstantin
1.60
Dubočica
1.08

finishing

Car Konstantin+0.00on par
Dubočica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Car Konstantin ↓

Dubočica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Car Konstantin or draw
58%
Car Konstantin or Dubočica
76%
Draw or Dubočica
67%

Winning margin

Car Konstantin wins by 2+
15%
Dubočica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Car Konstantin 1+ goals
75%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
40%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
16%
Dubočica 1+ goals
79%
Dubočica 2+ goals
47%
Dubočica 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
44%
Dubočica (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Car Konstantin at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Dubočica away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Car Konstantin attack 1.67 + Dubočica defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dubočica attack 1.57 + Car Konstantin defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Car Konstantin scores more
33%
level
24%
Dubočica scores more
42%

Dubočica at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dubočica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Car Konstantin vs Dubočica

Dubočica beat Car Konstantin 4-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion na Bubnju in Niš.