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Dubnica vs Dolný Kubín — 2. liga 2019

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dolný Kubín
Dolný Kubín
7/23/20222. liga2. liga · Round 2Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dubnica61%
×Draw21%
Dolný Kubín18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
2.00
Dolný Kubín
0.98

Dubnica creates 104% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.44
Dolný Kubín
0.70

allows per match

Dubnica
1.27
Dolný Kubín
2.57

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Dolný Kubín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
82%
Dubnica or Dolný Kubín
79%
Draw or Dolný Kubín
39%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
37%
Dolný Kubín wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
86%
Dubnica 2+ goals
59%
Dubnica 3+ goals
32%
Dolný Kubín 1+ goals
62%
Dolný Kubín 2+ goals
26%
Dolný Kubín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
77%
Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.57 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.44 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.00

Dolný Kubín attack 0.70 + Dubnica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Dubnica scores more
61%
level
21%
Dolný Kubín scores more
18%

Dubnica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Dubnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Dolný Kubín

Dubnica beat Dolný Kubín 3-0 in 2. liga on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.