Dolný Kubín 2–1 Dubnica: Result & Stats | 2. liga

Dolný Kubín

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dubnica

10/12/2022

2. liga · Round 17Futbalový štadión MUDr. Ivana Chodáka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Dolný Kubín42%

×Draw24%

Dubnica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dolný KubínExpected goals in this matchDubnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.45

Dolný Kubín

1.65

Dubnica

1.45

Dolný Kubín creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 55 away

1.40

creates per match

1.20

1.70

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Dolný Kubín

1.40

Dubnica

1.20

allows per match

Dolný Kubín

1.70

Dubnica

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolný Kubín ↓

Dubnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dolný Kubín or draw

66%

Dolný Kubín or Dubnica

76%

Draw or Dubnica

58%

Winning margin

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

22%

Dubnica wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

81%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

49%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

23%

Dubnica 1+ goals

77%

Dubnica 2+ goals

42%

Dubnica 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

56%

Dubnica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolný Kubín at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

Dubnica away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolný Kubín attack 1.40 + Dubnica defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dubnica attack 1.20 + Dolný Kubín defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dolný Kubín scores more

42%

level

24%

Dubnica scores more

34%

Dolný Kubín at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff