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Dubnica vs Častkovce — 3. liga - West 2020

Dubnica
Dubnica
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Častkovce
Častkovce
3/28/20243. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 20Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubnica27%
×Draw22%
Častkovce51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubnica
1.33
Častkovce
1.92

Častkovce creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Dubnica
1.00
Častkovce
1.32

allows per match

Dubnica
2.53
Častkovce
1.66

finishing

Dubnica+0.00on par
Častkovce+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubnica ↓

Častkovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Dubnica or draw
49%
Dubnica or Častkovce
78%
Draw or Častkovce
73%

Winning margin

Dubnica wins by 2+
11%
Častkovce wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Dubnica 1+ goals
74%
Dubnica 2+ goals
38%
Dubnica 3+ goals
15%
Častkovce 1+ goals
85%
Častkovce 2+ goals
57%
Častkovce 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Dubnica (draw refunded)
34%
Častkovce (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubnica at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Častkovce away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.66 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubnica attack 1.00 + Častkovce defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Častkovce attack 1.32 + Dubnica defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dubnica scores more
27%
level
22%
Častkovce scores more
51%

Častkovce at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubnica vs Častkovce

Dubnica and Častkovce drew 3-3 in 3. liga - West on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Mestský futbalový štadión Dubnica in Dubnica nad Váhom.