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Častkovce vs Dubnica — 3. liga - West 2020

Častkovce
Častkovce
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Dubnica
Dubnica
9/2/20233. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 5Futbalový štadión Častkovce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Častkovce68%
×Draw17%
Dubnica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Častkovce
2.59
Dubnica
1.16

Častkovce creates 123% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 15 away

creates per match

Častkovce
1.85
Dubnica
0.93

allows per match

Častkovce
1.38
Dubnica
3.33

finishing

Častkovce+0.00on par
Dubnica+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Častkovce ↓

Dubnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Častkovce or draw
85%
Častkovce or Dubnica
83%
Draw or Dubnica
32%

Winning margin

Častkovce wins by 2+
46%
Dubnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Častkovce 1+ goals
92%
Častkovce 2+ goals
73%
Častkovce 3+ goals
47%
Dubnica 1+ goals
69%
Dubnica 2+ goals
32%
Dubnica 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Častkovce (draw refunded)
82%
Dubnica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Častkovce at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 85 matches

Dubnica away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Častkovce attack 1.85 + Dubnica defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.59

Dubnica attack 0.93 + Častkovce defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Častkovce scores more
68%
level
17%
Dubnica scores more
15%

Častkovce at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Častkovce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Častkovce vs Dubnica

Častkovce beat Dubnica 4-2 in 3. liga - West on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Častkovce in Častkovce.