Dubai United 2–0 Al Ramms: Result & Stats

Dubai United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ramms

2/11/2024

Division 1 · Round 20Dubai Sports City Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Dubai United62%

×Draw21%

Al Ramms17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubai UnitedExpected goals in this matchAl Ramms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

0.98

Dubai United

2.05

Al Ramms

0.98

Dubai United creates 109% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

1.91

creates per match

0.95

1.02

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Dubai United

1.91

Al Ramms

0.95

allows per match

Dubai United

1.02

Al Ramms

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubai United+0.00on par

Al Ramms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai United ↓

Al Ramms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dubai United or draw

83%

Dubai United or Al Ramms

79%

Draw or Al Ramms

38%

Winning margin

Dubai United wins by 2+

38%

Al Ramms wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Dubai United 1+ goals

87%

Dubai United 2+ goals

61%

Dubai United 3+ goals

33%

Al Ramms 1+ goals

62%

Al Ramms 2+ goals

26%

Al Ramms 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Dubai United (draw refunded)

78%

Al Ramms (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai United at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Al Ramms away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.19 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai United attack 1.91 + Al Ramms defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.05

Al Ramms attack 0.95 + Dubai United defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dubai United scores more

62%

level

21%

Al Ramms scores more

17%

Dubai United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dubai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff